Chaos Measures

Quantifying unpredictability with Lyapunov exponents, entropy, and predictability horizons

🎯 Challenge

💡 Story

🎮 Sandbox

📚 Deep Dive

✅ Quiz

▶️ Simulate

🐛 Debug

How Far Ahead Can We Predict the Weather?

In 1961, Edward Lorenz discovered something troubling about weather prediction...

A tiny measurement error of 0.0001 degrees became a completely wrong forecast within weeks. Let's see why even perfect computers can't predict weather beyond ~14 days.

The Prediction Error Experiment

Imagine you measure today's temperature with a tiny 1% error. Watch how that error grows exponentially over time...

Day 0 of Forecast

Prediction Quality

Excellent

Error magnitude: < 0.01%

0%10%50%100%

Days 1-5: Forecast is reliable. Error is still small enough to be useful.

Try it! Click "Start Simulation" to watch how a tiny measurement error grows over time. See how many days until the forecast becomes useless!

The Wild

The Wild

The Wild

The Wild

Chaos Measures

Quantifying unpredictability with Lyapunov exponents, entropy, and predictability horizons

How Far Ahead Can We Predict the Weather?

In 1961, Edward Lorenz discovered something troubling about weather prediction...

The Prediction Error Experiment

Day 0 of Forecast

Excellent

Chaos Measures

Quantifying unpredictability with Lyapunov exponents, entropy, and predictability horizons

How Far Ahead Can We Predict the Weather?

In 1961, Edward Lorenz discovered something troubling about weather prediction...

The Prediction Error Experiment

Day 0 of Forecast

Excellent